The probability of getting a book published by the editor getting huge success is 0.165.
Given:
20% are huge successes, 30% are modest successes, 40% break even and 10% are losers.
99% of huge successes received favorable reviews.
70% of the moderate successes received favorable reviews.
40% of the break-even books received favorable reviews and 30% of the losers received favorable reviews.
P(Huge successes) = 0.2
P(Moderate successes) = 0.3
P(Break even successes) = 0.4
P(Losers) = 0.1
P(huge successes received favourable reviews) = 0.99
P(moderate successes received favourable reviews) = 0.7
P(break even books received favourable reviews) = 0.4
P(losers received favourable reviews) = 0.3
Using Baye's Theorem,
It can be calculated by the following formula
P = P(B). P(A/B)/ P (A)
Where P(B) is the probability of B happening, P(A/B) is the probability of A happening knowing that B happened and P(A) is the probability of A happening.
P(B) is the probability that the book is a huge success. So,
P(B) = 0.1
P(A/B) is the probability that the book receives favorable reviews when it is a huge success.
P(A/B) = 0.99
P(A) is the probability that the book receives favorable reviews:
P(A) = P1 + P2 + P3 + P4
P1 is the probability that a book that is a huge success is chosen and receives favorable reviews. So,
P1 = 0.2 x 0.99 = 0.198
P2 is the probability that a book that is a moderate success is chosen and receives favorable reviews. So,
P2 = 0.3 x 0.7 = 0.21
P3 is the probability that a book that breaks even is chosen and receives favorable reviews. So,
P3 = 0.4 x 0.4 = 0.16
P4 is the probability that a book that is a loser is chosen and receives favorable reviews. So,
P4 = 0.1 x 0.3 = 0.03
P(A) = 0.198 + 0.21 + 0.16 + 0.03 = 0.598
P (huge success/favorable review ) = 0.1 x .99/ 0.598 = 0.165
The probability of getting huge success in publishing a textbook is 0.165.
To learn more about Baye's Theorem visit: https://brainly.com/question/29100510
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