A recent college graduate is planning to take the first three examinations in the coming summer. She will take the first exam in June. If she passes that exam, then she will take the second exam in July, and if she also passes that one, then she will take the third exam in September. If she fails an exam, then she is not allowed to take any others. The probability that she passes the first exam is 0.9. If she passes the first exam, then the conditional probability that she passes the second one is 0.8, and if she passes both the first and the second exams, then then the conditional probability that she passes the third exam is 0.7.

Respuesta :

The recent college graduate upon passing her exam with a probability will be as follows:

(a) Let the event where she passes the exam be denoted as [tex]E_{i}[/tex] and by i-th exam.

P(passes all exams) = P([tex]E_{3} E_{2} E_{1}[/tex]) = P([tex]E_{3} | E_{2} E_{1}[/tex])P([tex]E_{2} | E_{1}[/tex])P([tex]E_{i}[/tex])

= (0.7)(0.8)(0.9)

= 0.504

(b) By calculating,

[tex]P (E_{1} E_2^{c} | (E_{1} E_{2} E_{3})^{c})[/tex] = [tex]\frac{P (E_{1} E_2^{c} | (E_{1} E_{2} E_{3})^{c})}{P((E_{1} E_{2} E_{3})^{c})}[/tex]

= [tex]\frac{P(E_{1} E^{c}_{2}) }{P((E_{1} E_{2} E_{3})^{c})}[/tex]

= [tex]\frac{P(E^{c}_{2} | E_{1)}P(E_{1 )} } {{P((E_{1} E_{2} E_{3})^{c})}}[/tex]

= [tex]\frac{(1- P (E_{2}|E_{1})) P(E_{1})}{1-P(E_{1} E_{2} E_{3} }[/tex]

= [tex]\frac{(1-0.8) X 0.9}{1-0.504}[/tex]

where we know the denominator from part (a)

0.3629

Probability theory deals with numerical representations of the likelihood that an event will happen or that a statement is true. A probability is a number between 0 and 1, where 0 essentially signifies an event's impossibility and 1 generally denotes certainty. The likelihood that something will happen is what is commonly referred to as probability. We can talk about the likely of one outcome, or the likelihood of a few outcomes, when we don't know how an event will turn out. An event's probability distribution is studied in statistics.

To learn more about probability: https://brainly.com/question/13604758

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