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Professor Very Busy needs to allocate time next week to include time for office hours. He needs to forecast the number of students who will seek appointments. He has gathered the following data:
Week #Students
6 Weeks ago 83
5 Weeks ago 110
4 Weeks ago 95
3 Weeks ago 80
2 Weeks ago 65
Last Year 50
What is this week's forecast using the naive approach? Assume that a decreasing trend in student appointments exists.
Other than the original data point 6 weeks ago, there is a clear trend over the last 5 weeks with continuously decreasing demand, so this week's forecast is last week's demand plus the difference between last week's demand and the demand two weeks ago. 50 + (50 - 65) = 35

Respuesta :

Professor Very Busy needs to allocate time next week to include time for office hours then TAF(Week 7) = S(Week 6) + T(Week 6) = 57.5 + (-5.5) = 52.0

Smooth the pattern as well as the arrangement to get the outlook this year.

S(Week 5) = TAF(Week 5) + alpha*(Actual(Week 5) - TAF(Week 5))

                = 75 + 0.5(65 - 75) = 70

S(Week 6) = TAF(Week 6) + alpha*(Actual(Week 6) - TAF(Week 6))

                = 65 + 0.5(50 - 65) = 57.5

T(Week 6) = T(Week 5) + beta*(TAF(Week 6) - TAF(Week 5) - T(Week5))

               = -5 + 0.1(65 - 75 - (-5)) = -5 + (-0.5) = -5.5

Therefore, TAF(Week 7) = S(Week 6) + T(Week 6) = 57.5 + (-5.5) = 52.0

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https://brainly.com/question/14633954

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